CRITICAL QUESTIONS: North Carolina
Our staff answers several critical questions facing NC State heading into the Wolfpack's road game at North Carolina.
How do you see the Mack Brown firing impacting the outcome?
James Henderson: I don’t. Just win the game.
Bryant Carson: Never having met Mack Brown I can only take second hand accounts for his presence but it’s my understanding that his greatest strength is making people like him. So, I imagine he’s got a roster over there with kids that really enjoy being around him and respect him. Brown’s last game coaching in Chapel Hill paired with honoring their fallen teammate should have the boys in blue ready to kill on Saturday. I imagine there will be a ton of emotion on the UNC sideline to start the game. Whether or not that emotion is helpful or hindrance to the football game remains to be seen.
Steve Williams: Meh. If UNC wins or loses I don't think his firing impacts it in any meaningful way, either way. It always comes down to blocking, tackling, execution. He does the better job? Who takes better care of the football? There can certainly be some emotion early on but that typically fades as the game wears on.
Rob McLamb: It is hard to say. UNC will almost certainly be inspired to win, but if the Tar Heels have issues stopping the run it will be equally demoralizing. Quick starts, or lack of, will tell the tale for both teams on Saturday.
PJ Williams: I just don't see this as a big motivational factor for UNC. Could Carolina get a little jolt from the whole "win one for Mack" pep talk? Maybe. It feels more likely to me that the opposite occurs: Carolina comes out flat and with little juice because they know the future is clouded with uncertainty. In addition, it's not like Carolina has had some incredible season and there's something meaningful still in play for Brown in his final home game. I could see the game going either way, but Brown's firing doesn't feel like it will be the source of some kind of motivational boost for the Heels.
Sam Locklear: I think the firing could fire up UNC's team to want to play well in Coach Brown's last game at UNC. On the NC State side, I don't think it changes anything. Just go in there and get the win.
What is your No. 1 key to the game?
James Henderson: Don’t turn the ball over. State’s offense continues to hurt iself each week with bad turnovers.
Bryant Carson: To me, this is similar to GT. The logical thing is to say the D needs to stop Hampton or, rather, keep him from single handedly beating you. However, I think the offense has to be willing to play loose, take some chances and ultimately land a few punches.
Steve Williams: For NC State, don't beat yourself offensively. In five of the six losses there's been critical times where the Pack beat themselves with mistakes.
Rob McLamb: Will NC State run effectively and how quickly would a solid start by the Pack take UNC out of its standard offense? The Tar Heels ran well in Raleigh last season but went away from the run in the second quarter. They would have done better to continue running -- even the quarterback was doing well within the rushing attack as Drake Maye exceeded 100 yards on the ground.
PJ Williams: Slow Hampton enough to force Criswell into as many second- and third-and-longs as possible. I don't see the Pack shutting Hampton down, but if State can make Criswell carry more of the load on offense than he's comfortable with, that will go a long way to winning this game.
Sam Locklear: Don't let Omarion Hampton have 100+ rush yards and win the turnover battle.
Omarion Hampton is one of the top backs in the country. How do you see NC State slowing him down?
James Henderson: Hampton is the type of back you slow down with penetration. I don’t think he’s great at avoiding contact so the quicker you can get bodies on him the better.
State has to shoot gaps and play on the other side of the line of scrimmage.
Bryant Carson: I’ve felt like State has tightened up in run defense since the first buy so that bodes better than where this group was early-mid-season. I think State will largely crowd the box this week to try and take Hampton away, as much as possible anyway, and make UNC win this thing through the air. It sounds like State will have Vann back (according to Coach Doeren’s PC on Monday) which is huge because not having him out there against a really good RB would be awful. However, Hampton is probably good/elite enough to still break some nice runs no matter how many bodies State puts in the box but you can’t let a 12-15 yard gain get behind everybody and find pay dirt over and over.
Steve Williams: You have to control the line of scrimmage. I thought State looked as good as they have all year against Georgia Tech in defending the run. They created disruption along the line of scrimmage. They clogged running lanes and tackled well. Hampton is really good. He's a dude that you really have to guard against loading the box, then missing a tackle and there's no one home to defend a home run play. If State controls Hampton I think they win this game going away (assuming the offense doesn't give it away)
Rob McLamb: They probably will not slow him down unless they take the bull by the horns and jump out to an early advantage. UNC will then do NC State's bidding by flinging the ball around, and the Pack will then extend its advantage.
PJ Williams: I fully expect Tony Gibson to load the box and throw all of his run blitzes and stunts at Carolina and see how they handle it. I'm expecting to see an ultra-aggressive game plan that's hell-bent on making Criswell carry UNC to a victory. It's the last game of a disappointing season. Send the house.
Sam Locklear: They'll have to stack the box, UNC hasn't been the best through the air this year.
Who is your x-factor for NC State?
James Henderson: My x-factor is CJ Bailey. He’s been bad the last two games. He needs to play well.
Bryant Carson: Smothers. This kid has been electric, in my opinion, since at least the Syracuse game when he finally starting getting some regular and higher volume touches. In my opinion, Smothers, like Nyheim Hines before him, is a threat to deliver a back breaker anytime he touches the ball and I think State is going to need a few back breakers to come away with a win on Saturday.
Steve Williams: CJ Bailey. At times he's been a turnover machine. When he's not, Bailey can be very good.
Rob McLamb: Offensively is where the X-factors exist. Run the ball with Smothers, put the ball in the hands of Waters and Concepcion in space, and take shots with Rogers, Grimes, and Joly. Keep attacking.
PJ Williams: CJ Bailey. If I remember correctly, I've yet to list a quarterback in response to this question all season, mainly because QBs are such a huge factor week-in and week-out that it's hard for me to view them as X-factors. In this one, however, Bailey needs to play well not only to win the game, but also to enter bowl practices and the off season with confidence and momentum, both for him and the program. Put a hurting on the Heels and head into next season as one of the top returning quarterbacks in the conference.
Sam Locklear: DT Brandon Cleveland, he'll need to continue to play well in that nose tackle position to help NC State slow down Hampton.
Where do you believe NC State has its best advantage against North Carolina?
James Henderson: I think State can win the battle in the trenches. State’s offensive line could be the key to this win. Notice I said offensive line. Please don’t try and put other guys in a position to block. The fewer blockers the better.
Bryant Carson: I have thought all season that State’s core offensive skill guys give them an advantage over every defensive unit on the schedule.
Steve Williams: Pass defense. Whenever I've watched UNC they've had a terrible time creating anything consistent in the pass game. Make the Heels one dimensional and force them to HAVE to beat you through the air.
Rob McLamb: Coaching: If UNC trails in games they tend to drift away from their strengths too early.
PJ Williams:Overall talent at the skill positions on offense. Carolina has the obvious star in Hampton, but between Bailey, Joly, Smothers, Rogers, Grimes, and others, the Wolfpack has the edge. Whether that talent is fully taken advantage of is another question entirely.
Sam Locklear: CJ Bailey is their advantage, he is far better than any QB on UNC's roster.
How important is this game for Dave Doeren and the program?
James Henderson: It’s very important. You can’t lose to Mack Brown in his final game and miss a bowl without it lingering into the offseason.
Bryant Carson: In 2016, when State was in a similar position, at least from a W/L perspective, it was huge. However, this one just feels kind of meaningless. I understand beating your rival and getting bowl eligible has a lot of meaning to a lot of people but I think I’m personally in a place where this season just feels like a total loss at this point. Finishing .500 is certainly better than sub .500 but I think I/us/some of us will look back at this season, whether it’s 5-7 or 6-6 and kind of shake our heads with disappointment and frustration for what could’ve been.
Steve Williams: Massive. With NIL such a big deal, each season is a year to year proposition in terms of fan participation and support. The Pack desperately needs this win to become bowl eligible and slow the bleeding. Regardless of the outcome, the season as a whole has been a huge letdown for the majority of the fanbase. Losing to your rival would put an ugly stinky bow on 2024.
Rob McLamb: Winning in Chapel Hill is always important. Bowl preparation is typically helpful. Presenting an appearance of a program that goes bowling even in down years is good for optics, at least in recruiting. It is a big game in many ways.
Did you know that if NC State wins, the Wolfpack will be 16-9 against UNC in the 20th century, 7-2 against the Tar Heels in the last nine games, and Dave Doeren will be 5-1 against North Carolina in games played in Chapel Hill? You might not have known it before, but if NCSU wins, you will hear about it incessantly -- as you should.
PJ Williams: Not as important as the following week. Changes are coming, but I don't think those changes depend on the result of this game. Decisions have likely already been made from a staff standpoint and for players considering exiting via the transfer portal. Dave Doeren will need to pull the right strings with the staff and with players they want to ensure remain cornerstones of the program moving forward. I expect there to be a flurry of activity once the game is over in Chapel Hill.
Sam Locklear: This game is a make or break for Coach Doeren. Considering that NC State needs to win to make a bowl game, and if they lose there will be more question marks this offseason for this coaching staff.
Fill in the blank. NC State will win if ___________________.
James Henderson: NC State will win if the Pack wins the rushing battle.
Bryant Carson: Just like GT…if the offense comes to play. I would love to see the Wolfpack just play loose and fast and let some of these very talented skill guys rip.
Rob McLamb: NC State will win if they run the ball well in the first half without committing turnovers.
PJ Williams: They control the gameflow. State's defense needs to keep UNC behind schedule, and the offense has to consistently give itself manageable situations on second and third downs.
Sam Locklear: NC State will win if they take care of the football and stop Omarion Hampton.