BASEBALL: Recapping Non-Conference Play
NC State is off to a 9-2 start and opens ACC play against Boston College at Doak Field this week.
Hot Start
The Pack started with a couple of opponents in VCU and Hawaii who are projected to compete in their respective conference title races. In early returns, VCU is 7-2 against other teams (8-4 overall), while Hawaii is 5-3 (6-5 overall) including a series split with Ole Miss.
Each team challenged State, who had to earn each of their series wins that both came down to the last few innings on Sunday. That’s encouraging, because often times we’ve seen the Pack run through a light non-conference schedule before having warts exposed early in ACC play.
Certainly that can still happen, but earning series wins against solid teams -- while getting an early look at deficiencies -- can pay off down the road.
A look at the numbers
As a team, State has a 1.019 OPS, fifth in the ACC, while striking out only 12.6% of the time, which is the lowest number in the ACC. Individually, Jacob Cozart and Alec Makarewicz are off to the hottest starts with a 194 and 188 wRC+ (weighted runs created +, 100 is average) respectively.
Drew Lanphere has been the biggest surprise. Taking advantage of Alex Sosa missing time, he is slashing .400/.514/.600 in 38 plate appearances. Lanphere’s emergence is going to give State decisions to make when Sosa returns to action.
On the mound, State’s team ERA of 4.25 is 6th in the ACC while their 5.37 FIP is 11th. The biggest concern so far has certainly been the walks, as their 12.6% walk rate is 14th in the ACC. Individually, Sam Highfill and Ryan Marohn lead the team with 14 innings each and matching 4.50 ERAs.
Dom Fritton’s struggles have been an early storyline, as he has a 6.39 ERA and 6.2 FIP. Jacob Dudan has been excellent at the back of the bullpen. He’s gotten the early look as closer and has yet to allow an earned run in 5.2 innings.
Concerns
The easiest spot to nitpick is State holding leads. State blew multiple-run leads in both losses and had three other wins where they let their opponent back in before holding on late, including the walk-off win vs Towson on Friday. At this point, it’s less of a concern and more of something to monitor while State figures out their bullpen.
Additionally, there’s been a few notable absences. We know Matt Willadsen is injured, Shane Van Dam did not pitch this week, and Sosa hasn’t played in a couple weeks due to sickness. Josh Hogue missed a couple games versus Towson but returned to the lineup Sunday.
ACC Play up next
It’s a tale of two halves for NC State’s ACC slate this year. The first half of the schedule: BC, at GT, Duke, ND, at Louisville. The second half: at Clemson, UNC, at FSU, at UVA, Wake Forest.
First half of the schedule consists of one likely tournament team (Duke, albeit a team looking like a national title contender right now) while the second half consists of potentially four teams competing for a host spot at the end of the day.
The good news is the two toughest series are at home in Duke and Wake Forest. It’s imperative that the Pack starts off playing really well; 10+ wins should be the goal in the first five series. That would put State ahead of schedule headed into the April and May gauntlet.