BASEBALL: Selection Monday on Deck

The Wolfpack’s ACC Tournament run came to an end against Miami and will now await its NCAA Tournament fate.

Bats go silent against ‘Canes

After the Duke game, I wrote “When you hit with runners in scoring position, you’re going to score a lot of runs, regardless of what else you do.” Well, State didn’t hit with RISP Thursday night, going 1 for 8. Miami wasn’t much better at 2 for 13, but that one extra hit was the difference in the game.

No extra base hits, only 4 walks out of the lineup. Not going to win many games like that.

Credit State’s pitching staff, they danced in and out of trouble all day against an excellent Miami lineup. The Pack’s starters going deep in games is critical for this team and it didn’t happen in this tournament because they went to Matt Wiladsen and Sam Highfill on short rest and Logan Whitaker out of the bullpen.

Despite that, the relievers gave State a chance to win the game. 5.1 innings out of the pen and 1 unearned run allowed… that will play.

The case for NC State to make the NCAA Tournament

As of 4:29 PM on Sunday afternoon, the Pack’s RPI is at 24 and looks unlikely to move anymore with only a couple games remaining on the schedule. That’s an RPI within a couple spots of hosting candidates Auburn, Boston College and Southern Miss.

There’s very little precedent for an RPI that high that resulted in missing the tournament, UNC in 2016 is the best comparison (13-17 in the ACC and 19 RPI). NC State won 10 games against top 50 teams which is right in line with other tournament teams.

State won the head to head series against Notre Dame, the only other bubble team out of the ACC. The Pack went 25-2 in games against teams outside the top 50 and has no bad losses.

State has individual wins against tournament teams Coastal, ECU and Duke, plus two against UNCW, 5-1 overall against that quartet. NCSOS is 118 and overall SOS is 21.

The case for NC State to miss the NCAA Tournament

NC State went 13-16 in the ACC, 14-17 if you include the tournament. Three games under .500 is the bare minimum of where a team can be if they want to be considered for the bubble. The Pack is 4-6 in ACC series as well.

17 losses against top 50 teams is the second-most of any team in consideration for the tournament. There is no series win over teams in the field, despite 6 series against teams in the field including at least 4 host teams, maybe even 5.

The Pack went 8-1 in ACC play against the three worst teams: FSU, Louisville and Pitt, 5-15 against everybody else. There were no Power 5 teams on the non-conference schedule and the best team State played in a non-conference series was Belmont with a 215 RPI.

The Verdict

A couple of stolen bids on Sunday afternoon have made this much tighter than it was Friday after State was eliminated. All in all though, it could have been much worse.

The committee has always emphasized RPI and with the top-16 announced last night, they went nearly straight RPI. If that trend holds, NC State will be in.

Additionally, the ACC was far and away the #2 conference per RPI this year. Looking at the breakdown now, the SEC has 10 teams, ACC has seven, the Big 12 and Pac-12 have five and are fighting for six or seven.

I think the ACC will get the benefit of the doubt and get their eighth team in, which will be NC State.