Civilized said:

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SmaptyWolf said:

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Civilized said:

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BigBarryWood said:

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Haven't most sane people been saying that for a while. Now that they know they are losing to Trump they are going all in on getting him removed. Biden is about to get the trump treatment if he doesn't back down.

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Biden has been losing to Trump for a year.

What changed was after that disastrous debate, many Dems (accurately) think Biden's already-marginal chances of winning took an unrecoverable hit.

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To be fair, Dems are a notorious circular firing squad who are always convinced that they're losing if they aren't 10% ahead, and this race is that on steroids. Also worth noting that even after the debate and the New York Times running 10 front page stories a day calling for Biden to be pushed out he's currently only 2% behind Trump (according to 538, a fairly unbiased poll aggregator).

I guess we're about to find out how unrecoverable it was.

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Yeah 538 is great. Poll aggregation is the way to go for obvious reasons, it evens out bias via poll sampling from across the spectrum.

Even still, Trump support is notoriously hard to poll and consistently errs towards underrepresenting his actual ultimate electoral support. He consistently outperforms his polling.

Also, with the conservative electoral college advantage, national polls are fine for looking at trends but don't accurately forecast candidate win probability.

Clinton had a 4-point lead in national polling aggregates heading into Election Day 2016, finished with a 2-point lead, and still lost the election soundly because she got crushed in the swing states.

I'd worry more about swing state polling than national polling, and Trump is currently leading the polls in 5 of the 7 swing states

If 538 projections are currently accurate, with Biden trailing by 2, how would you handicap the horse race given polling lessons learned from 2016 and 2020?

Actual handicappers given Biden around a 20% chance to win currently and I just don't see why there's reason to think that's way off given the aforementioned factors.

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SmaptyWolf said:

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Civilized said:

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SmaptyWolf said:

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Civilized said:

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BigBarryWood said:

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Haven't most sane people been saying that for a while. Now that they know they are losing to Trump they are going all in on getting him removed. Biden is about to get the trump treatment if he doesn't back down.

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Biden has been losing to Trump for a year.

What changed was after that disastrous debate, many Dems (accurately) think Biden's already-marginal chances of winning took an unrecoverable hit.

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To be fair, Dems are a notorious circular firing squad who are always convinced that they're losing if they aren't 10% ahead, and this race is that on steroids. Also worth noting that even after the debate and the New York Times running 10 front page stories a day calling for Biden to be pushed out he's currently only 2% behind Trump (according to 538, a fairly unbiased poll aggregator).

I guess we're about to find out how unrecoverable it was.

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Yeah 538 is great. Poll aggregation is the way to go for obvious reasons, it evens out bias via poll sampling from across the spectrum.

Even still, Trump support is notoriously hard to poll and consistently errs towards underrepresenting his actual ultimate electoral support. He consistently outperforms his polling.

Also, with the conservative electoral college advantage, national polls are fine for looking at trends but don't accurately forecast candidate win probability.

Clinton had a 4-point lead in national polling aggregates heading into Election Day 2016, finished with a 2-point lead, and still lost the election soundly because she got crushed in the swing states.

I'd worry more about swing state polling than national polling, and Trump is currently leading the polls in 5 of the 7 swing states

If 538 projections are currently accurate, with Biden trailing by 2, how would you handicap the horse race given polling lessons learned from 2016 and 2020?

Actual handicappers given Biden around a 20% chance to win currently and I just don't see why there's reason to think that's way off given the aforementioned factors.

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They were both very weird years (first exposure to MAGA, and then the pandemic), so I don't think you can learn much from them. In 2022 the polls were far more accurate, and if anything overrepresented Republican chances (remember the "red wave" that didn't happen?). So who knows?

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Werewolf said:

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#Sieve, is this your guy? Thank you in advance for your willingness to answer. Of course, #Nappy is no where to be found, LOL.

🚨 JUST IN: The Philly radio host which Biden told he was “proud” to be “the first black woman to serve with a black president” tells CNN she was sent the questions by the White House in ADVANCE

The man can’t even answer PRE-APPROVED SOFTBALL QUESTIONS.

Absolutely pathetic. https://t.co/rUTIbPHk9t pic.twitter.com/ynpMmqk26Y

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 6, 2024

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Reminder this is the fundraiser where Obama had to lead Biden off the stage

The White House told us it was a cheapfake to point that out. Now the organizer of the fundraiser says that Biden appeared insanely old and now needs to drop out of the race https://t.co/TXXbCTYrUU

— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) July 10, 2024

packgrad said:

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More "right wing propaganda" confirmed

Reminder this is the fundraiser where Obama had to lead Biden off the stage

The White House told us it was a cheapfake to point that out. Now the organizer of the fundraiser says that Biden appeared insanely old and now needs to drop out of the race https://t.co/TXXbCTYrUU

— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) July 10, 2024

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SmaptyWolf said:

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Civilized said:

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SmaptyWolf said:

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Civilized said:

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BigBarryWood said:

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Haven't most sane people been saying that for a while. Now that they know they are losing to Trump they are going all in on getting him removed. Biden is about to get the trump treatment if he doesn't back down.

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Biden has been losing to Trump for a year.

What changed was after that disastrous debate, many Dems (accurately) think Biden's already-marginal chances of winning took an unrecoverable hit.

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To be fair, Dems are a notorious circular firing squad who are always convinced that they're losing if they aren't 10% ahead, and this race is that on steroids. Also worth noting that even after the debate and the New York Times running 10 front page stories a day calling for Biden to be pushed out he's currently only 2% behind Trump (according to 538, a fairly unbiased poll aggregator).

I guess we're about to find out how unrecoverable it was.

---

Yeah 538 is great. Poll aggregation is the way to go for obvious reasons, it evens out bias via poll sampling from across the spectrum.

Even still, Trump support is notoriously hard to poll and consistently errs towards underrepresenting his actual ultimate electoral support. He consistently outperforms his polling.

Also, with the conservative electoral college advantage, national polls are fine for looking at trends but don't accurately forecast candidate win probability.

Clinton had a 4-point lead in national polling aggregates heading into Election Day 2016, finished with a 2-point lead, and still lost the election soundly because she got crushed in the swing states.

I'd worry more about swing state polling than national polling, and Trump is currently leading the polls in 5 of the 7 swing states

If 538 projections are currently accurate, with Biden trailing by 2, how would you handicap the horse race given polling lessons learned from 2016 and 2020?

Actual handicappers given Biden around a 20% chance to win currently and I just don't see why there's reason to think that's way off given the aforementioned factors.

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They were both very weird years (first exposure to MAGA, and then the pandemic), so I don't think you can learn much from them. In 2022 the polls were far more accurate, and if anything overrepresented Republican chances (remember the "red wave" that didn't happen?). So who knows?

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At 12pm today, I will be going to the House floor to highlight why Congress needs to protect the integrity of American elections from noncitizen voting and urge my Democrat colleagues to support the SAVE Act.

Tune in: https://t.co/WLmzpz0g7Y

— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) July 10, 2024

smitt86 said:

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Was listening to a podcast recently that, essentially, predicted this would happen. Said that, despite whatever Biden says, he would not be the nominee after the DNC in August. Pointed out they agreed to have the debate earlier than they have in the past, in part because they knew Biden would struggle and they could get it out of the way and use it as leverage to get him off the ticket.

Now the wait to see if it'll be Kamala or someone else that they choose to run against Trump.

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TheStorm said:

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packgrad said:

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More "right wing propaganda" confirmed

Reminder this is the fundraiser where Obama had to lead Biden off the stage

The White House told us it was a cheapfake to point that out. Now the organizer of the fundraiser says that Biden appeared insanely old and now needs to drop out of the race https://t.co/TXXbCTYrUU

— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) July 10, 2024

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I'm sure that the George Clooney comment is just another Republican AI-generated "cheap fake" as well...

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Werewolf said:

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Roll call!!!

At 12pm today, I will be going to the House floor to highlight why Congress needs to protect the integrity of American elections from noncitizen voting and urge my Democrat colleagues to support the SAVE Act.

Tune in: https://t.co/WLmzpz0g7Y

— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) July 10, 2024

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smitt86 said:

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Was listening to a podcast recently that, essentially, predicted this would happen. Said that, despite whatever Biden says, he would not be the nominee after the DNC in August. Pointed out they agreed to have the debate earlier than they have in the past, in part because they knew Biden would struggle and they could get it out of the way and use it as leverage to get him off the ticket.

Now the wait to see if it'll be Kamala or someone else that they choose to run against Trump.

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wolfbreath said:

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Bernie Sanders tells Biden to 'turn off the teleprompter' and let voters judge 'how well he's doing'

https://www.yahoo.com/news/bernie-sanders-tells-biden-turn-154608462.html

Sen. Sanders advised President Biden Monday that he should engage with voters without relying on tools like a teleprompter.

.

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BigBarryWood said:

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Werewolf said:

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Roll call!!!

At 12pm today, I will be going to the House floor to highlight why Congress needs to protect the integrity of American elections from noncitizen voting and urge my Democrat colleagues to support the SAVE Act.

Tune in: https://t.co/WLmzpz0g7Y

— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) July 10, 2024

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Ha. Good fn luck

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SmaptyWolf said:

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BigBarryWood said:

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Werewolf said:

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Roll call!!!

At 12pm today, I will be going to the House floor to highlight why Congress needs to protect the integrity of American elections from noncitizen voting and urge my Democrat colleagues to support the SAVE Act.

Tune in: https://t.co/WLmzpz0g7Y

— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) July 10, 2024

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Ha. Good fn luck

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So the Democratic Party totally has the election rigged, but is also freaking out because they're not sure Biden can win. This all makes perfect sense!

Maybe now is a good time to admit that you're all full of it?

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BigBarryWood said:

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Werewolf said:

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Roll call!!!

At 12pm today, I will be going to the House floor to highlight why Congress needs to protect the integrity of American elections from noncitizen voting and urge my Democrat colleagues to support the SAVE Act.

Tune in: https://t.co/WLmzpz0g7Y

— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) July 10, 2024

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Ha. Good fn luck

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Werewolf said:

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BigBarryWood said:

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Werewolf said:

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Roll call!!!

At 12pm today, I will be going to the House floor to highlight why Congress needs to protect the integrity of American elections from noncitizen voting and urge my Democrat colleagues to support the SAVE Act.

Tune in: https://t.co/WLmzpz0g7Y

— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) July 10, 2024

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Ha. Good fn luck

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My thought was that the American people need a complete tabulation of the members of Congress who vote AGAINST this bill. It identifies any RINOs willing to vote against it and it allows for a possible vote YES from a handful of Democrats..........it's their opportunity to stand with the American people.

Pass it by a gnat's ass and then on to a roll call in the US Senate.

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Werewolf said:

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I do not know. Call it grandstanding by the SOH if you will but I think a specific yeah or nay from every single member would be appropriate. They can then explain it if any MSM will ask some tough questions "why"

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“Democrats brought in 30 million illegals to replace the black vote”

“Every 4 years they come and lie to you”

Must listen to this man!🔊 pic.twitter.com/XBLOiOzmRS

— Sheri™ (@FFT1776) May 21, 2024

DrummerboyWolf said:

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House did pass the SAVE act on elections. 5 Democrats voted for it but 198 did not. They obviously want illegals voting. Or should I say they definitely want the ballots of illegals so they can fill them out.

https://truthsocial.com/@Charliekirk/posts/112764461065103658

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Werewolf said:

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The 5 Dem yea votes could have been cast merely as cover if the outcome was already known. Need to know who the 4 Rep no votes were

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They are already cheating.... pic.twitter.com/beC7ZWjxbr

— A Man Of Memes (@RickyDoggin) June 23, 2024

DrummerboyWolf said:

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ncsupack1 said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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House did pass the SAVE act on elections. 5 Democrats voted for it but 198 did not. They obviously want illegals voting. Or should I say they definitely want the ballots of illegals so they can fill them out.

https://truthsocial.com/@Charliekirk/posts/112764461065103658

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I'll ask you. What was in this bill that is different than current law? I haven't looked at this bill.

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ElLoboLoco post this yesterday. I believe the gist is that to register you have to prove you are a citizen and not show a driver's lisence.

https://truthsocial.com/@Charliekirk/posts/112764461065103658

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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ncsupack1 said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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ncsupack1 said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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House did pass the SAVE act on elections. 5 Democrats voted for it but 198 did not. They obviously want illegals voting. Or should I say they definitely want the ballots of illegals so they can fill them out.

https://truthsocial.com/@Charliekirk/posts/112764461065103658

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I'll ask you. What was in this bill that is different than current law? I haven't looked at this bill.

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ElLoboLoco post this yesterday. I believe the gist is that to register you have to prove you are a citizen and not show a driver's lisence.

https://truthsocial.com/@Charliekirk/posts/112764461065103658

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I see no problem with this. I also think one should show ID to vote.

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I agree. You have to have a photo ID to do pretty much anything. Should be the same for voting. Now handing out driver's licenses to everybody who crosses the border like they do in CA is not good. You have to prove that you are eligible to vote and are a citizen.

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