CHARTING THE PASSING GAME: Ball State
Coming off a disappointing loss to West Virginia, I was fascinated to see how the passing offense would respond – not only from an execution perspective but also with the play-calling. Would the offense try to stretch the field more? Would we see different route concepts, personnel groupings, or anything of the sort trying to find the right combination?
And well, at the conclusion of the Ball State game I exited Carter Finley Stadium feeling like I had a bag of mixed results. We saw success in several of the areas we were looking for, but it wasn’t sustained. And with the offense seemingly taking their foot off of the gas pedal in the second half, it’s difficult to derive meaning or purpose for some observations.
So with that said let's take a look at some of the numbers from this performance.
Matt McKay
While he didn’t take every snap, Matt McKay handled the majority of the offense and I thought played better than some of his numbers show. On the negative side McKay had his lowest yardage output of the season and threw his first interception. These two factors led to his worst passer rating of the season.
Yet, as a whole, I thought his play was much better against Ball State compared to the week prior. We can point to some throws where you would like to see better ball placement as well as some missed deep shots. But, I thought he made correct reads and was more apt to use his legs if the coverage dictated it. This is McKay maturing as a quarterback.
Finishing with thirty throws - his second lowest of the season (WCU - 28) - McKay had several nice passes into some very tight windows. But, the offense really got away from the passing game in the second half where McKay only attempted eight throws. With normal usage I think you are probably looking at an above average performance.
And of course he did throw his first interception of the season which came off a wild ricochet and a great catch by the defender. All quarterbacks get bit by a tipped ball eventually.
So as I look at McKay’s passing chart and compare it to the three previous games I immediately notice that he did attempt to push more passes downfield. We have noted since the beginning of the season how the offense had lived within the first ten yards of the line of scrimmage. But, against Ball State we see that 43% of throws, completed or not, traveled at least ten yards. This compares to only 27% last week against West Virginia.
In terms of air yards, the average NC State pass against Ball State was 8.22 yards, the highest of the season. And this occurred even with a season-high seven passes behind the line of scrimmage dragging the average down. So I do believe there was a concerted effort to get more vertical stretch in the passing game.
And supporting this conscious effort I think you need to look at the defenses faced the last two weeks. From my review of their defensive structures, both teams played primarily single-high defenses relying on mostly Cover 3 and Man Free. While they did play some two-high alignments (Quarters), I think the similarity in secondary structure is important to note as we go through some of these numbers.
Going further, a comparison of McKay’s passing charts through the first four games shows he spread the ball around to different parts of the field against Ball State more so than any other game. We see that he only attempted eight passes (27%) between the hashes. This compares to nineteen passes (40%) against West Virginia. As a whole I thought he was seeing the field fairly well and went through his progressions when necessary.
The Receiving Corps
Over the last two games the receiving group has had major issues with drops. In my charting I’ve noted five drops in each of the West Virginia and Ball State contests. And unfortunately I’ve got Emeka Emezie leading the way with half of these. This must be rectified if this offense is going to have meaningful success moving forward.
One aspect of the receiving game that we saw NC State improve on was the run after catch. Against West Virginia this number was a paltry 32.4% of all passing yardage, easily the lowest of the season. This past weekend it improved to 42.7%. I believe this is an important number to track throughout the season. This receiving group will need to chip in and make their own yards to generate explosive plays in upcoming contests if this team is going to be successful.
And lastly, I just wanted to note that the tight end group only received one target against Ball State. I am somewhat surprised by this as I felt Cary Angeline was carving out a nice role in the offense leading in to this game. Ultimately I think this is an aberration as this team will need his mismatch potential in conference play.
Situational Passing
Through the first two games of the season we watched as the offense produced dismal numbers when it came to third down passing. But, I thought some of Matt McKay’s best throws came on third down against Ball State. Ultimately, he completed six of ten third down throws for 60 yards with five of these (50%) converting for a first down. And if it wasn’t for Zonovan Knight’s egregious drop on a third down screen pass early in the game, these numbers would be significantly better.
Furthermore, I wanted to mention how well McKay has thrown the ball in the red zone. Against Ball State he was four of four for 23 yards and really put the ball into several tight windows. Even against West Virginia he threw the ball well in the red zone. And to be honest this is one area I was concerned about coming out of the East Carolina contest. But McKay and the whole offense has performed soundly.
Offensive Tweaks?
As I charted the Ball State game there were a couple of differences in this past week’s offense that I took note of. First and foremost, I charted easily the lowest number of pass plays with some sort of run-action, whether it be play-action or as part of an RPO. We all heard Dave Doeren mention after the West Virginia game that maybe they needed to call less RPOs in certain scenarios, and I wonder if this is a direct result. It’ll be interesting to track moving forward, as I do think run-action will be a major cog to the success of this passing game.
In a similar vein I also charted the least amount of pre-snap motions or shifts prior to pass plays. Again, it’s too early to determine if a philosophy shift is occurring, but it is something to watch.
And lastly, we saw more passing from 10 personnel (1RB, 0TEs, 4WRs) than we have in any game to date. This was actually the first game in which 10 personnel was the most commonly used personnel grouping on passing plays. So is this a direct result of Dylan Autenrieth’s injury, part of a shift in offensive philosophy, or something else?
Throwing Early
One of the aspects of this past weekend’s game that I found so odd was the dichotomy of the first half and second half in terms of passing aggression. We’ve already discussed how little the passing game was used after halftime, but the first half was a completely different story. NC State came out and attempted a dropback pass on seven of the first eight plays. One of these pass attempts turned into a scramble for Matt McKay, but I think it was obvious from the start they wanted to get the passing game firing.
We also see this pass-first mentality in P&10 charting which is something coaching staffs monitor. P&10 represents the play call and results of the first play of an offensive possession. For NC State, they threw the ball on four of six P&10 opportunities in the first half.
And if we drill down one step further we really see something that I think is important for this offense. In the first half against Ball State, when faced with 1st and 10 the Wolfpack offense elected to pass on thirteen plays compared to six runs. While the strength of the Wolfpack offense may be its backfield, it is important they try to throw in advantageous situations such as early in a set of downs. I don’t believe this passing game is good enough to win right now if the defense knows a pass is coming. Therefore, pass early and against favorable defensive groupings to try and create mismatches.
HB Seam
If there was one play that stuck out to me, in a positive way, it was the eighteen yard reception by Ricky Person late in the second quarter.
There are really two things that stand out to me here. First, I thought it was a great counter to the aggression of the Ball State defense. In the first quarter NC State attempted two jet sweeps and both proved unsuccessful as Ball State was quick to flow to the edges with their linebackers and bring a defensive back downhill. Therefore, we see the Wolfpack offense take advantage of this aggression by having multiple defenders run themselves out of the play by biting on the run-action, thus leaving the seam wide open.
I also really like getting Ricky Person up the seam on a vertical route. This HB Seam concept has been really popular in the last couple of years with offenses such as the Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, and Oklahoma Sooners. Not only can you create an athletic mismatch potentially having a linebacker trying to run up the seam against an athlete such as Person, but there are also times where a defense’s rules can be used against them.
For some this HB Seam concept has been specifically deployed to target defenses using quarters coverage due to some of the predictability of their assignments. I mentioned this in my breakdown of the Spring Game, but I think passing to the tailbacks can (and should) involve much more than swings and screens.