INSIDE THE NUMBERS: How NC State's Offense Can Be More Explosive
How can NC State’s offense be more explosive?
That question has been asked frequently on the forums and during in-game threads, so let’s look at a few ways this can happen for the Wolfpack.
Take Your Shots
First of all, we need to understand that NC State has taken deep shots. At this point in the season, Devin Leary is fourth in the ACC in pass attempts of 20+ air yards, which is also an area where he excels.
| Quarterback | Completions | Attempts | Comp. % |
| Brennan Armstrong | 30 | 71 | 42.3% |
| Sam Hartman | 22 | 40 | 55.0% |
| Sam Howell | 10 | 39 | 25.6% |
| Devin Leary | 18 | 35 | 51.4% |
Look at what Leary’s doing now. He's already thrown for 17 touchdowns with just two interceptions through the first seven games... per the metrics, he’s been outstanding. Check out more numbers from PFF:
| Category | Statistic | ACC Rank | National Rank (P5) |
| Big Time Throws | 19 | No. 2 | No. 2 |
| Big Time Throw Percentage | 7.2% | No. 1 | No. 1 |
| Fewest Turnover-Worthy Throws | 4 | No. 2 | N/A |
| Fewest Turnover-Worthy Throws % | 1.4% | No. 2 | N/A |
| Deep Ball (20+) PFF Grade | 93.9 | No. 2 | No. 9 |
| Overall Pass Attempts | 35.7 | No. 2 | No. 4 |
So the first way NC State can be more explosive is simply by being more aggressive. Look at Virginia for instance. The Cavs have one of the best offenses in the country, and a lot of it is due to the deep-ball volume of Brennan Armstrong. UVA is allowing him to take shot after shot, and it's increased the upside of the offense.
Devin Leary has the accuracy and arm strength for similar usage... if State wants to go that route.
Work In The Young Guys
Some of State’s most explosive playmakers are the younger wide receivers. Anthony Smith and Porter Rooks have flashed vertically this season, especially Smith. The 6-foot-3 wideout is averaging a ridiculous ADOT of 34.1 which leads the team by far. ADOT is the average depth of target, so on average, Smith is averaging 34.1 yards down the field on each target.
He also leads NC State in yards per route run, so Smith clearly can make a difference when on the field. However, he primarily has lined up on the perimeter, and that is where State’s relying on standouts Emeka Emezie and Devin Carter. Smith played just three snaps versus Miami and received two targets, hauling in one long reception.
Like Smith, Rooks is stuck in the slot behind Thayer Thomas, who is coming off a two-touchdown performance at Miami. Rooks has shown he can be a playmaker as well, but again, where will the reps come from?
We said above, one way to be more explosive is by throwing the ball more vertically. Well another way is by giving yourmore explosive playmakers more snaps.
Increase “10” Personnel Usage
This is something to seriously consider.
NC State’s base personnel grouping has been “11” Personnel, which is 1 running back, 1 tight end, and three wide receivers. Below is a look at the various personnel groupings and usage.
NOTE: The first # is the number of running backs and the second # is the number of tight ends on the field
| Personnel | # Runs | # Passes | Total Plays | Yards Per Carry | Yards Per Pass Attempt |
| 10 | 9 | 46 | 55 | 4.89 | 9.78 |
| 11 | 139 | 191 | 330 | 5.01 | 6.83 |
| 12 | 68 | 19 | 87 | 5.75 | 5.05 |
| 13 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3.33 | 5.25 |
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
As you can see, NC State’s heavily relied on 11 Personnel this season. The numbers have been solid, but on average, State ha actually ran the ball better with two tight ends than one.
The big differene though is in the passing game. In 10 Personnel, which is four-wide receiver formations, NC State is averaging 9.78 yards per attempt, nearly three more yards per attempt than while in 11 Personnel.
Let’s look at how Devin Leary has fared as a passer in the two personnel groupings. First, here is Leary while NC State has one tight end on the field.
Devin Leary Passing With 11P (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR)
| Completions | 118 | Interceptions | 1 |
| Attempts | 183 | Dropped Interceptions | 1 |
| Completon % | 64.48% | Dropped Passes | 8 |
| Total Yards | 1,281 | Batted Down | 3 |
| Yards/Attempt | 7.0 | Throwaways | 5 |
| Air Yards/Attempt | 8.15 | Passer Rating | 142.02 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | Success Rate | 45.9% |
As expected, pretty good numbers from Leary. The touchdowns are high as well, mainly due to heavy usage of 11P in the redzone.
Now, let's look at Leary in 10 Personnel.
Devin Leary Passing With 10P (1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR)
| Completions | 33 | Interceptions | 1 |
| Attempts | 45 | Dropped Interceptions | 0 |
| Completon % | 73.33% | Dropped Passes | 0 |
| Total Yards | 450 | Batted Down | 2 |
| Yards/Attempt | 10.0 | Throwaways | 1 |
| Air Yards/Attempt | 11.04 | Passer Rating | 167.56 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | Success Rate | 44.44% |
Leary and the offense have been much more efficient in 10 Personnel. The YPA is higher, as well as the air yards per attempt. Also, NC State has yet to record a dropped pass from 10P while having dropped nine throws from 11P... interesting.
But ultimately, we’re talking explosives... so let’s look at those numbers, comparing 10 Personnel to 11 Personnel.
| Personnel | Total Runs | Explosive Runs | Exp. Run Rate | Total Passes | Explosive Passes | Exp. Pass Rate |
| 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 46 | 11 | 23.9% |
| 11 | 139 | 15 | 10.8% | 191 | 20 | 10.5% |
NC State's pass offense has been more explosive, by far, with four wide receivers on the field under Leary. He has also simply been better when operating from four-wide formations.
The sample size is small, but State's run game hasn't been much different.
Parting Shots
Ultimately, do we expect NC State to ditch 11 Personnel and go all in on four-wide formations? Of course not because State has still be pretty good while aving at least one tight end on the field.
But if you're trying to generate more explosive plays, so far the formula has been simple: let Leary throw it vertically with four wides.
Nearly 25% of the Pack's 46 pass attempts have gone for explosive plays. That's pretty darn good.