Trump Biden Polls

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RunsWithWolves26
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According to RCP, Biden holds a 6.9% average lead over Trump at this point. I do find it interesting that Clinton hovered around 44-45% during that election in the polls which always made me hesitant of them. So what say you? Do you believe the polls this time or are you of the "polls don't tell it all, silent majority" group?
lumberpack5
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More sophisticated polls will give you different numbers based on turnout. There were polls out there in the battleground states Clinton lost to show that at middle to low turnout she could be in trouble, but people focused on national polls. National polls always skew Democratic because there are more of them, but they are concentrated in urban areas which are penalized by the Electoral College system.

In these current battle ground polls Trump is significantly behind in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pa, and Minnesota. He has to get to at least 47% in those states to have a chance. If a State has a gubernatorial or Senate race check those numbers. Cooper and Cunningham are running 3-6 ahead of Forest and Tillis when the Presidential poll shows it even or Biden up 2-3.

If turnout is above 2016, Trump and a lot of Republicans likely get beat.

If turnout is more akin to 2008 or sets a records, Trump and a lot of Republicans get killed.

For this time around each 1% of turnout will be near 1,4 million votes.

2008 - @57%
2012 - @55%
2016 - @56%

From the standpoint of actually winning the presidency, fewer or extra votes only matter in states that can flip. An extra 500,000 votes in NY or California for the Democrat means nothing. And extra 50,000 votes in Bama, Mississippi or Tennessee mean nothing for Republicans.

Marginal votes in NC, Florida, Pa, Michigan, Whisky, Arizona, Ohio, Georgia, and Texas really "matter". Biden wins with any 3 of these States. Trump needs 6 of the 9 if my math is correct.

My guess is Biden takes Arizona, Pa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. NC, Florida, and Ohio can;t be predicted, I think Trump keeps Georgia and Texas.
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IseWolf22
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No one poll should be taken as gospel, but in aggregate they do tell a story. Biden's lead has been larger and more steady than Clinton's. His swing state results are better too.

Is anything certain at this point? No. But it does look worse for Trump this year, and he just barely won in 2016.
RunsWithWolves26
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IseWolf22 said:

No one poll should be taken as gospel, but in aggregate they do tell a story. Biden's lead has been larger and more steady than Clinton's. His swing state results are better too.

Is anything certain at this point? No. But it does look worse for Trump this year, and he just barely won in 2016.


That is where my thinking is right now. The fact Clinton never seemed to break 44-45% was telling to me. The fact Trump won by basically 100,000 votes total in 3 swing states makes his "huge victory" a little misleading. Biden staying between 48-50% says a lot but then again, does it say everything and are people not telling everything to pollsters. Will be interesting to see it all unfold. IMO, the first debate could swing things a lot either way.
IseWolf22
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

IseWolf22 said:

No one poll should be taken as gospel, but in aggregate they do tell a story. Biden's lead has been larger and more steady than Clinton's. His swing state results are better too.

Is anything certain at this point? No. But it does look worse for Trump this year, and he just barely won in 2016.


That is where my thinking is right now. The fact Clinton never seemed to break 44-45% was telling to me. The fact Trump won by basically 100,000 votes total in 3 swing states makes his "huge victory" a little misleading. Biden staying between 48-50% says a lot but then again, does it say everything and are people not telling everything to pollsters. Will be interesting to see it all unfold. IMO, the first debate could swing things a lot either way.
I'm just not sure how many persuadable voters are left. I plan to hate watch this, and make fun of both, but very little could change my opinion at this point.

I feel like Covid's effect on turnout, polling workers, mail in ballots, etc. may play more of a role than the debates.
Bas2020
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

According to RCP, Biden holds a 6.9% average lead over Trump at this point. I do find it interesting that Clinton hovered around 44-45% during that election in the polls which always made me hesitant of them. So what say you? Do you believe the polls this time or are you of the "polls don't tell it all, silent majority" group?


Some rumors out there that "pollsters" have adjusted the R's and D's this year properly but are poling subsets of that group.


Ie when they need a R to poll they are looking at white suburban women (the main subset group that Trump struggles with). When they need a D to poll they are going to D strongholds.

So the # of R's, D's and independents may be correct but the subsets of those groups they are polling is being skewed to help Bidens' polling numbers.

IMHO the only polls that matter this year are the Rust Belt.

ncsualum05
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I think the polls are wrong... again. It seems to me they have doubled down on stupid this year. RCP average of trash is still trash.

Not all polls provide crosstabs and demo info but the ones that do that I've seen are awful. And there have been major inconsistencies in certain demographics from poll to poll and especially compared to 2016 exit polls. I have looked at a lot of numbers with respect to the election. I don't have links or data available to back this up right now but I'm telling you that you're going to be surprised again if you're going strictly off RCP and polls. Even worse if you look at 538.. that is a liberal hack.

I've seen the crowds at these rallies. I've seen some interesting voter registration data. And I've seen some early results from mail in like in NC which are alarming democrats. We will see what happens after debates but my early prediction is ...

Trump wins with 304 EV's. I think he keeps most of his 2016 states but loses Michigan. Picks up NH and MN. Now everything in the rust belt is a toss up so it could go a number of ways. But I'll bet he gets at least 2 and really I'm predicting 3 of the 4 states MN,WI, MI, and PA. I think AZ is looking better for Trump now than it has the entire year. I think it will be close but he will win AZ. I think NC and FL are not even in play. They might be close but they are not the level of battleground that you would believe. OH, IA, GA, TX were never in play and are not in play now. All those states will be 7-10 pt wins for Trump... with exception GA maybe being 5 pts.

The national popular vote is irrelevant but it'll probably be close to a tie. Biden may win it by 1%. I think it'll be within 1% either way. There's going to be a big mess sorting out all this mail in crap and there's going to be some fraud too so we will see if there's enough to swing things.

One final thing.... I think Trump holds or does close with the non educated white vote. He will be weak on the educated white vote. I think he has big improvement with black and hispanic vote this time. I think he gets around 15% black and 35% hispanic.
lumberpack5
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Go to 538 if you want a discreet analysis of which polls you can trust and which firms have a quantitative bias.

For instance Trafalga, Rassmusen, and anything by Zogby skews right.
Anything by PPD skews a little left.

Aggregates taken from C and low B pollsters are ****ty aggregates. You need some A polling firms to use as calibrators.


https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_College_Poll_Report_September_2020.pdf

Meredith's most recent poll shows a near tie in the mid 40-s between Trump and Biden. It's methodology is rated B/C by 538. Go to it and read the methodology and the crosstabs, but understand it's not a real poll, its an imputed poll from a preselected sample group sold by a third party. Farmers would call this manure.

Undecideds this late and in this type of election break against the incumbent. Anyone who says they are undecided is either a liar or stupid. If the polling method can not account for Biden and Trump getting at least 97-98% of the vote, the poll is no damn good because this is not the year where a third or 4th party candidate pulls vote like they did in 2016 or 2000, or 92 and 96

For those not liking RCP or 538, go Cook Political Report https://cookpolitical.com/
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lumberpack5
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A month ago Trafalga showed trump up 1 in Minnesota, now they show Biden up 3.

Trafalga skews to right, especially in white, middle class states. Their model is to ask people how they think their neighbors are voting. This reveals shy Trump voters, but is not as effective a method in less monolithic areas.

Putting on my old Political Scientist hat, if Trump does not win the debate tomorrow night he is finished. Too much early voting occurs and too much is baked in for anyone to change late based on the last debate.


If you pull back from the close in view, Trump has done something to the Democrats not seen since Bill Clinton - pull it back toward the center and neuter far left wackos. The damage done to the mainstream Republican Party is pretty major, and business Pubs who are not that concerned with "values", seem to be finding it's easier to move the Democratic Party back toward the center than it is to fight nihilistic battle in the Trump Party.

It pleases the hell out of me.
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Bas2020
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lumberpack5 said:

A month ago Trafalga showed trump up 1 in Minnesota, now they show Biden up 3.

Trafalga skews to right, especially in white, middle class states. Their model is to ask people how they think their neighbors are voting. This reveals shy Trump voters, but is not as effective a method in less monolithic areas.

Putting on my old Political Scientist hat, if Trump does not win the debate tomorrow night he is finished. Too much early voting occurs and too much is baked in for anyone to change late based on the last debate.


If you pull back from the close in view, Trump has done something to the Democrats not seen since Bill Clinton - pull it back toward the center and neuter far left wackos. The damage done to the mainstream Republican Party is pretty major, and business Pubs who are not that concerned with "values", seem to be finding it's easier to move the Democratic Party back toward the center than it is to fight nihilistic battle in the Trump Party.

It pleases the hell out of me.


Save this post. I dont think you could be more "off".


We shall see.


And as to your previous post both 538 and Cook report are far left pollsters. Literally 95% of polls are far left leaning. They use polling to try and sway public opinion, and then in the last 48 hours magically "tighten" to regain any semblance of credibility.


IF Trump wins NC, PA, and Florida Its over.... and he is well on his way. Zero chance Biden can win without PA especially.
GoPack2008
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Bas2020 said:

lumberpack5 said:

A month ago Trafalga showed trump up 1 in Minnesota, now they show Biden up 3.

Trafalga skews to right, especially in white, middle class states. Their model is to ask people how they think their neighbors are voting. This reveals shy Trump voters, but is not as effective a method in less monolithic areas.

Putting on my old Political Scientist hat, if Trump does not win the debate tomorrow night he is finished. Too much early voting occurs and too much is baked in for anyone to change late based on the last debate.


If you pull back from the close in view, Trump has done something to the Democrats not seen since Bill Clinton - pull it back toward the center and neuter far left wackos. The damage done to the mainstream Republican Party is pretty major, and business Pubs who are not that concerned with "values", seem to be finding it's easier to move the Democratic Party back toward the center than it is to fight nihilistic battle in the Trump Party.

It pleases the hell out of me.


Save this post. I dont think you could be more "off".


We shall see.


And as to your previous post both 538 and Cook report are far left pollsters. Literally 95% of polls are far left leaning. They use polling to try and sway public opinion, and then in the last 48 hours magically "tighten" to regain any semblance of credibility.


IF Trump wins NC, PA, and Florida Its over.... and he is well on his way. Zero chance Biden can win without PA especially.
538 is not a pollster.

They aggregate almost every poll into a statistical model that then runs a monte carlo simulation and produces a forecast based on approx 40,000 possible outcomes.

But 538 does not do any independent polling.

Biden is clearly the favorite to date but a Trump win is very much a realistic possibility. He's trailing in most key tipping point states, however he's very much got a chance to still win, particularly, as you said, if he can carry PA and FL. That being said, Trump is running out of time to close the gap.

Also worth remembering that polling errors were a factor in 2016, and they generally underestimated Trump. But the magnitude of those errors was very much in line with the potential range of polling error from previous elections. It's absolutely possible that there remains systematic polling errors that underestimate Trump in 2020; there could also be an error that underestimates Biden. We'll have to see.
Ripper
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lumberpack5 said:

Go to 538 if you want a discreet analysis of which polls you can trust and which firms have a quantitative bias.

For instance Trafalga, Rassmusen, and anything by Zogby skews right.
Anything by PPD skews a little left.

Aggregates taken from C and low B pollsters are ****ty aggregates. You need some A polling firms to use as calibrators.


https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_College_Poll_Report_September_2020.pdf

Meredith's most recent poll shows a near tie in the mid 40-s between Trump and Biden. It's methodology is rated B/C by 538. Go to it and read the methodology and the crosstabs, but understand it's not a real poll, its an imputed poll from a preselected sample group sold by a third party. Farmers would call this manure.

Undecideds this late and in this type of election break against the incumbent. Anyone who says they are undecided is either a liar or stupid. If the polling method can not account for Biden and Trump getting at least 97-98% of the vote, the poll is no damn good because this is not the year where a third or 4th party candidate pulls vote like they did in 2016 or 2000, or 92 and 96

For those not liking RCP or 538, go Cook Political Report https://cookpolitical.com/
Both Cook and Silver were way off in 2016.
IseWolf22
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Ripper said:

lumberpack5 said:

Go to 538 if you want a discreet analysis of which polls you can trust and which firms have a quantitative bias.

For instance Trafalga, Rassmusen, and anything by Zogby skews right.
Anything by PPD skews a little left.

Aggregates taken from C and low B pollsters are ****ty aggregates. You need some A polling firms to use as calibrators.


https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_College_Poll_Report_September_2020.pdf

Meredith's most recent poll shows a near tie in the mid 40-s between Trump and Biden. It's methodology is rated B/C by 538. Go to it and read the methodology and the crosstabs, but understand it's not a real poll, its an imputed poll from a preselected sample group sold by a third party. Farmers would call this manure.

Undecideds this late and in this type of election break against the incumbent. Anyone who says they are undecided is either a liar or stupid. If the polling method can not account for Biden and Trump getting at least 97-98% of the vote, the poll is no damn good because this is not the year where a third or 4th party candidate pulls vote like they did in 2016 or 2000, or 92 and 96

For those not liking RCP or 538, go Cook Political Report https://cookpolitical.com/
Both Cook and Silver were way off in 2016.
SIlver had Trump with a 28% chance of winning, one of the highest percentages of any model. That's the opposite of being "way off." Statistical models are measures of probability, not predictive of outcome.

By comparison, their 2020 model is currently showing Trump with a 22% chance. Which means he still could win, but it's less likely than 2016
Ripper
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IseWolf22 said:

Ripper said:

lumberpack5 said:

Go to 538 if you want a discreet analysis of which polls you can trust and which firms have a quantitative bias.

For instance Trafalga, Rassmusen, and anything by Zogby skews right.
Anything by PPD skews a little left.

Aggregates taken from C and low B pollsters are ****ty aggregates. You need some A polling firms to use as calibrators.


https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_College_Poll_Report_September_2020.pdf

Meredith's most recent poll shows a near tie in the mid 40-s between Trump and Biden. It's methodology is rated B/C by 538. Go to it and read the methodology and the crosstabs, but understand it's not a real poll, its an imputed poll from a preselected sample group sold by a third party. Farmers would call this manure.

Undecideds this late and in this type of election break against the incumbent. Anyone who says they are undecided is either a liar or stupid. If the polling method can not account for Biden and Trump getting at least 97-98% of the vote, the poll is no damn good because this is not the year where a third or 4th party candidate pulls vote like they did in 2016 or 2000, or 92 and 96

For those not liking RCP or 538, go Cook Political Report https://cookpolitical.com/
Both Cook and Silver were way off in 2016.
SIlver had Trump with a 28% chance of winning, one of the highest percentages of any model. That's the opposite of being "way off." Statistical models are measures of probability, not predictive of outcome.

By comparison, their 2020 model is currently showing Trump with a 22% chance. Which means he still could win, but it's less likely than 2016
Their modeling was based off of faulty numbers. Look at polling groups or modelers who were accurate in 2016 if you want accurate predictions for 2020.
Bas2020
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Follow Nate Silver (538) on twitter . He's a left wing hack no even trying to be impartial .

Again the polls are all over the place ... for example numerous polls have Trump up 10+% with blacks and Hispanics from 16'. If that is even close to being true Trump will easily win in the EC.
SupplyChainPack
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lumberpack5 said:

Go to 538 if you want a discreet analysis of which polls you can trust and which firms have a quantitative bias.

For instance Trafalga, Rassmusen, and anything by Zogby skews right.
Anything by PPD skews a little left.

Aggregates taken from C and low B pollsters are ****ty aggregates. You need some A polling firms to use as calibrators.


https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_College_Poll_Report_September_2020.pdf

Meredith's most recent poll shows a near tie in the mid 40-s between Trump and Biden. It's methodology is rated B/C by 538. Go to it and read the methodology and the crosstabs, but understand it's not a real poll, its an imputed poll from a preselected sample group sold by a third party. Farmers would call this manure.

Undecideds this late and in this type of election break against the incumbent. Anyone who says they are undecided is either a liar or stupid. If the polling method can not account for Biden and Trump getting at least 97-98% of the vote, the poll is no damn good because this is not the year where a third or 4th party candidate pulls vote like they did in 2016 or 2000, or 92 and 96

For those not liking RCP or 538, go Cook Political Report https://cookpolitical.com/


538 was just plain wrong in 2016 - not going to be putting blind faith on that one.

GoPack2008
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I don't understand why you guys don't get this. Giving someone a 28% chance of winning is very much giving the a real chance of winning.

If Vegas says a team is favored by 3 points, and then that team loses, does that mean they were wrong?

If a prediction model gives us a 28% chance of beating Clemson, and then we beat Clemson, was the model wrong? Or did it say that it was unlikely but possible we could win?
GoPack2008
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Bas2020 said:

Follow Nate Silver (538) on twitter . He's a left wing hack no even trying to be impartial .

Again the polls are all over the place ... for example numerous polls have Trump up 10+% with blacks and Hispanics from 16'. If that is even close to being true Trump will easily win in the EC.
I follow Nate on twitter.

You called 538 a pollster, but they aren't. You're speaking with great confidence but getting very basic details wrong. This isn't at all about Trump or right/left, it's about understanding what polls say and what you can conclude from them.

Which polls are showing those results? I'd be curious to see them. There's definitely some evidence he's doing better with Latino voters than he did in 2016.
packgrad
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Bas2020 said:

Follow Nate Silver (538) on twitter . He's a left wing hack no even trying to be impartial .

Again the polls are all over the place ... for example numerous polls have Trump up 10+% with blacks and Hispanics from 16'. If that is even close to being true Trump will easily win in the EC.


Correct. If you read Nate Silver on Twitter and dont think he's a left wing hack, you're also a left wing hack.
PackBacker07
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GoPack2008 said:

I don't understand why you guys don't get this. Giving someone a 28% chance of winning is very much giving the a real chance of winning.

If Vegas says a team is favored by 3 points, and then that team loses, does that mean they were wrong?

If a prediction model gives us a 28% chance of beating Clemson, and then we beat Clemson, was the model wrong? Or did it say that it was unlikely but possible we could win?


This is correct. I've never understood people who think polling in 2016 was "wrong." Polling, by it's nature, can't be "wrong." It's a staitistical model used to make educated guesses and odds on outcomes. I agree - think of 538, etc as sports odds. The Nuggets beat the Clippers in the Western Semis in what is the fourth largest playoff upset of the last 20 years. While Denver had less than a 10% chance of winning, that doesn't mean the models used to get that number were "wrong" or that the sportsbooks were "hacks" that hated the Nuggets.
Y'all means ALL.
SupplyChainPack
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packgrad
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I bet none of these guys were arguing polls can't be wrong in November 2016. I can assure you the press wasn't.
IseWolf22
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packgrad said:

I bet none of these guys were arguing polls can't be wrong in November 2016. I can assure you the press wasn't.
You'd be wrong there. Statistics didn't change the past 4 years
packgrad
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IseWolf22 said:

packgrad said:

I bet none of these guys were arguing polls can't be wrong in November 2016. I can assure you the press wasn't.
You'd be wrong there. Statistics didn't change the past 4 years


You do realize you can google search 2016 articles, right? You would be wrong.
Glasswolf
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No matter what the polls show. Get out and vote if you haven't
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SupplyChainPack
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Especially the dead and the illegal immigrants.

Get out there and do your civic duty!
lumberpack5
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There is a positive correlation between the inability to understand probability and the ability to understand how something actually happens.


Glen Beck was talking about this subject this very morning attempting to warn his listeners that the needles Trump threaded in 2016 was a true trifecta.


No polling is going to consistently be closer than plus or minus about 1.5 % in a large election. It is within that 3% total range that Trump squeaked out Pa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It's even more difficult to ferret out the effect of a weirdo third and fourth party wacko like Gary Johnson and the Commie woman from 2016.

Polls give you a range.
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lumberpack5
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Glasswolf said:

No matter what the polls show. Get out and vote if you haven't
Glass, voting for presidential electors has been nearly static from a percentage standpoint since 1960 if you control for how many people have their voting rights taken by prison time. I know a lot Republicans like to claim its only black folk losing the right to vote, but there are a damn bunch of white folks and latinos that have lost theri right to vote, and lost it decades ago and now don't vote because they are out of the habit or never got in it even if they reformed.


My math comes up with 3-4 million African American males who can't vote because of felonies. And non-African Americans at 7.4 to 20 million who can vote because of felonies.

While collar felony committers are the ones who get their voting rights back.
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DrummerboyWolf
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What the polls said in 2016 and what America said.

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ncsualum05
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Where the race actually stands based on what I've seen. (Polling is the worst thing to look at right now)

MN, WI, MI, and PA are all hotly contested states. They are toss ups. Trump will need 1 to win... I think he gets 2 or 3. But that's not high confidence opinion. These states will all be around 1% one way or the other.

Darkhorse states for Trump (other than MN) are NH and NV. Both should be close. I would project Biden to win NV. NH I am unclear on... could swing Trump's way.

AZ is looking better for Trump than it was. It will be very close but I'd give the edge to Trump in AZ similar to the edge in NV to Biden. Think AZ will go red by 2% roughly. Probably going to be a democrat pick up in 2024 moving forward.

NC and FL will be close but IMO they are not within Biden's range. Trump has those locked up barring something crazy. I believe he will improve in FL from 2016 and win the state by 2-2.5% and win NC by at least 3 or maybe 4%.

Anyone telling you OH, IA, TX, or GA is in play is not being honest. Trump all the way in those states.

My projection... Trump 304, Biden 234. Popular Vote around 1% and could go either way.
DrummerboyWolf
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ncsualum05 said:

Where the race actually stands based on what I've seen. (Polling is the worst thing to look at right now)

MN, WI, MI, and PA are all hotly contested states. They are toss ups. Trump will need 1 to win... I think he gets 2 or 3. But that's not high confidence opinion. These states will all be around 1% one way or the other.

Darkhorse states for Trump (other than MN) are NH and NV. Both should be close. I would project Biden to win NV. NH I am unclear on... could swing Trump's way.

AZ is looking better for Trump than it was. It will be very close but I'd give the edge to Trump in AZ similar to the edge in NV to Biden. Think AZ will go red by 2% roughly. Probably going to be a democrat pick up in 2024 moving forward.

NC and FL will be close but IMO they are not within Biden's range. Trump has those locked up barring something crazy. I believe he will improve in FL from 2016 and win the state by 2-2.5% and win NC by at least 3 or maybe 4%.

Anyone telling you OH, IA, TX, or GA is in play is not being honest. Trump all the way in those states.

My projection... Trump 304, Biden 234. Popular Vote around 1% and could go either way.
Popular vote doesn't matter(it will to the left), it's all about getting to 270. The founders were pretty smart that way. They didn't want the big cities ruling the rest of the country.
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Bas2020
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Trump wins PENN and he WINS.


He is looking good in NC and FL based upon the people that follow the registration and EV/VBM stats in super detail county by county.


Polls dont matter. New York, California etc dont matter.


Rust Belt is all that matters.
Bas2020
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DrummerboyWolf said:

ncsualum05 said:

Where the race actually stands based on what I've seen. (Polling is the worst thing to look at right now)

MN, WI, MI, and PA are all hotly contested states. They are toss ups. Trump will need 1 to win... I think he gets 2 or 3. But that's not high confidence opinion. These states will all be around 1% one way or the other.

Darkhorse states for Trump (other than MN) are NH and NV. Both should be close. I would project Biden to win NV. NH I am unclear on... could swing Trump's way.

AZ is looking better for Trump than it was. It will be very close but I'd give the edge to Trump in AZ similar to the edge in NV to Biden. Think AZ will go red by 2% roughly. Probably going to be a democrat pick up in 2024 moving forward.

NC and FL will be close but IMO they are not within Biden's range. Trump has those locked up barring something crazy. I believe he will improve in FL from 2016 and win the state by 2-2.5% and win NC by at least 3 or maybe 4%.

Anyone telling you OH, IA, TX, or GA is in play is not being honest. Trump all the way in those states.

My projection... Trump 304, Biden 234. Popular Vote around 1% and could go either way.
Popular vote doesn't matter(it will to the left), it's all about getting to 270. The founders were pretty smart that way. They didn't want the big cities ruling the rest of the country.


Correct. You have tool bags like Nate SIlver telling you that Biden is going to win Texas, GA, etc. Meanwhile Biden himself is pulling out of TX and is focusing all his time and money in the Rust Belt. Biden also has only been to NC once I believe. I think his internals show that is out of reach. As is OH and FL.

AZ and PA and Trump wins unless something crazy happens.

One thing not bein mentioned is DEMS are losing 50-100K votes in certain states from the college get out the vote campaigns. There are also alot of union votes they are losing because of these DEM governors having everything on lock down.

Tons of service industry people in Las Vegas etc that vote dem cant be counted on this year.

This is a weird cycle due to Covid. If you just look at "voter enthusiasm" I dont see any way Biden can win. If journos and pollsters make the mistake of looking at twitter and thinking that is enthusiasm they are fools.
cowboypack02
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Bas2020 said:

DrummerboyWolf said:

ncsualum05 said:

Where the race actually stands based on what I've seen. (Polling is the worst thing to look at right now)

MN, WI, MI, and PA are all hotly contested states. They are toss ups. Trump will need 1 to win... I think he gets 2 or 3. But that's not high confidence opinion. These states will all be around 1% one way or the other.

Darkhorse states for Trump (other than MN) are NH and NV. Both should be close. I would project Biden to win NV. NH I am unclear on... could swing Trump's way.

AZ is looking better for Trump than it was. It will be very close but I'd give the edge to Trump in AZ similar to the edge in NV to Biden. Think AZ will go red by 2% roughly. Probably going to be a democrat pick up in 2024 moving forward.

NC and FL will be close but IMO they are not within Biden's range. Trump has those locked up barring something crazy. I believe he will improve in FL from 2016 and win the state by 2-2.5% and win NC by at least 3 or maybe 4%.

Anyone telling you OH, IA, TX, or GA is in play is not being honest. Trump all the way in those states.

My projection... Trump 304, Biden 234. Popular Vote around 1% and could go either way.
Popular vote doesn't matter(it will to the left), it's all about getting to 270. The founders were pretty smart that way. They didn't want the big cities ruling the rest of the country.


Correct. You have tool bags like Nate SIlver telling you that Biden is going to win Texas, GA, etc. Meanwhile Biden himself is pulling out of TX and is focusing all his time and money in the Rust Belt. Biden also has only been to NC once I believe. I think his internals show that is out of reach. As is OH and FL.

AZ and PA and Trump wins unless something crazy happens.

One thing not bein mentioned is DEMS are losing 50-100K votes in certain states from the college get out the vote campaigns. There are also alot of union votes they are losing because of these DEM governors having everything on lock down.

Tons of service industry people in Las Vegas etc that vote dem cant be counted on this year.

This is a weird cycle due to Covid. If you just look at "voter enthusiasm" I dont see any way Biden can win. If journos and pollsters make the mistake of looking at twitter and thinking that is enthusiasm they are fools.
This is what i'm thinking.

If Biden's internal polls showed that he was 15 points up he wouldn't be campaigning in FL, PA, and NC. He would be out in GA, OH, and TX. Where he is campaigning at tells me that he knows that he is not leading by anywhere near as much as being reported.

The other thing that I have been looking at is new voter registration. The republican party is really leaps and bounds about the democrats here. That stat would be extremely worrisome to me if I was a democrat, especially since democrats have to capitalize on the enthusiasm in order to win I believe that journalist look at things inside their little bubble, and not everywhere else...which is what causes them to be the way they are
IseWolf22
How long do you want to ignore this user?
So, let's say hypothetically that the results in a month match polls extremely closely.

Are you all going to accept that this wasn't really close and Trump legitimately lost?

I'm prepared to eat crow if Trump manages to win. I don't see it at all right now. But hey I've been wrong about many things in my life.
 
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