Postseason projections

14,529 Views | 69 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Wolfer79
EthanBarry
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It might seem a little early for projected fields of 64 (it is) but Baseball America put out their first projection this week. D1 baseball does their first one next week.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/projected-field-of-64-march-28-2018/

Has us as the #9 overall seed. Remember: they are seeding 1-16 this year, not just 1-8
Wolfer79
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D1BASEBALL, Kendall Rogers tweet

Our Midseason Field of 64 comes out around lunch time today. The first in-season field working with the 1-16s. Feels weird not to be pairing super regionals but a fun process yet again. We'll also have our usual postseason projection podcasts.
Stater
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https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/projected-field-of-64-april-4-2018/
Wolfer79
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Stater said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/projected-field-of-64-april-4-2018/


East Carolina in a Super Regional in Raleigh would be fun
EthanBarry
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Wolfer79 said:

Stater said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/projected-field-of-64-april-4-2018/


East Carolina in a Super Regional in Raleigh would be fun
Chapel Hill is the two seed there too. That would be something (and I would imagine there's a very good chance of us getting paired with Duke, ECU or Chapel Hill if they host in supers)
Wolfer79
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D1BASEBALL

#6 national seed with #11 national seed Kentucky in Super Regional

Raleigh Regional
NC State
Vanderbilt
Central Florida
Navy

EthanBarry
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Wolfer79 said:

D1BASEBALL

#6 national seed with #11 national seed Kentucky in Super Regional
No thanks on seeing Kentucky again. On another note, Vandy is our 2 seed. Meanwhile Chapel Hill is the 14th seed and hosting with Northeastern and Illinois in their region. Stuff like this is why we think the media hates us haha.
Wolfer79
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Baseball America
April 11
NEW projected Field of 64 https://t.co/GBP8lTlHMR

#5 national seed
Raleigh Regional
NC State
Dallas Baptist
Texas Christian
NC Central

Matched with #12 national seed Vanderbilt in Super Regional
Vanderbilt
Texas
Tennessee Tech
St. Louis

Clemson #7 national seed
East Carolina #8 national seed
Florida State #9 national seed
unc-ch #14 national seed
Duke #16 national seed
Wolfer79
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Aaron Fitt tweet

Spoke with @DukeBASE coach Chris Pollard. Since the Durham Bulls are home for regional weekend, Duke has submitted a bid to host at Jack Coombs Field on campus. Devils have a detailed plan to bring in additional seating and other necessary facilities to meet hosting requirements.
PackZach
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Just wondering is this related to limited seating, stadium construction/renovation, or logistical issues? I have never seen Duke's baseball stadium so I am just curious. It would be a shame to have such an amazing season and not be able to host due to stadium concerns.
Riddickulous
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I would think Duke could use the USA Baseball complex in Cary if they needed to.
Wolfer79
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BREAKING: Our very latest NCAA Postseason Projections are out with @BeaverBaseball moving up to a top eight seed and @AggieBaseball @DukeBASE @UConnBSB moving in as hosts. Plenty more changes as well. The Field of 64:

https://t.co/51vbAiwIQW https://t.co/Eq2eR9PJx9


#6 national seed
Raleigh Regional
NC State
Florida Atlantic
Washington
NC A&T

Matched in Super Regional with
#11 national seed UCONN
LSU
Northeastern
Columbia

East Carolina #7 national seed
unc-ch #10 national seed
Fun Super Regional

Duke #14 national seed
Florida State #16 national seed
Clemson #2 seed in #13 Coastal Carolina Regional
Louisville #2 seed in #12 Vanderbilt Regional

Wolfer79
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MAKING THE FIELD: Our @KendallRogers @AaronFitt and @ethmark take you inside the selection process for the Field of 64.

Top 16 Seeds Discussion >> https://t.co/BKUMJzPf8J

The rest of the field >> https://t.co/zgbrOyIR4c https://t.co/paL6MvuaA9
johntom
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PackZach said:

Just wondering is this related to limited seating, stadium construction/renovation, or logistical issues? I have never seen Duke's baseball stadium so I am just curious. It would be a shame to have such an amazing season and not be able to host due to stadium concerns.
Duke's on campus stadium is tiny. I imagine they could use the USA baseball complex if they needed to or even the old DAP.
Wolfer79
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The tubular twosome @tedcahill and @mlananna have the latest Projected Field of 64. Take a look at who's in, who's out, and who's on the bubble https://t.co/HSZypNOSIt

NC State #5 national seed
Raleigh Regional
NC State
UCONN
Jacksonville
NC Central

Matched in Super Regional with #12 national seed
unc-ch
Georgia
College of Charleston
Wagoner

East Carolina #8 national seed
Duke #11 national seed
Florida State #2 seed in #9 Vanderbilt Regional
Louisville #2 seed in #10 seed Indiana
Georgia Tech #3 seed in #7 seed Mississippi
Clemson #2 seed in #15 Coastal Carolina
Wolfer79
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This week's Eight For Omaha, by conference:
SEC - 3
Pac-12 - 3
Big 12 - 1
ACC - 1
https://t.co/erEX4Ym5hY
Wolfer79
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Updated Projected Field of 64
https://t.co/bi0vNpUZAX
Baseball America

NC State #4 national seed
Raleigh Regional
NC State
South Alabama
St. John's
Yale

Matched with #13 national seed Clemson in Super Regional

East Carolina #8 national seed
unc-ch #9 national seed
Clemson #13 national seed
Florida State #15 national seed
Louisville #3 seed at #11 Vanderbilt
Duke #2 seed at #14 Coastal Carolina
Wolfer79
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BREAKING: The very latest @D1Baseball NCAA Postseason Projections are OUT with some shifting in the top eight, some new hosts and much more.

The Field of 64: https://t.co/4jD0MQZvDL https://t.co/mGv6YebTBf

NC State #4 national seed

Raleigh Regional
NC State
Tennessee Tech
Michigan
Wagner

Super Regional
#13 national seed UCLA
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
UC Irvine

East Carolina #7 national seed
unc-ch #9 national seed
Florida State #10 national seed
Clemson #15 national seed
Louisville #3 seed @ #12 seed Kentucky
Duke #2 seed in #7 seed East Carolina



metcalfmafia
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Wolfer79 said:

BREAKING: The very latest @D1Baseball NCAA Postseason Projections are OUT with some shifting in the top eight, some new hosts and much more.

The Field of 64: https://t.co/4jD0MQZvDL https://t.co/mGv6YebTBf

NC State #4 national seed

Raleigh Regional
NC State
Tennessee Tech
Michigan
Wagner

Super Regional
#13 national seed UCLA
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
UC Irvine

East Carolina #7 national seed
unc-ch #9 national seed
Florida State #10 national seed
Clemson #15 national seed
Louisville #3 seed @ #12 seed Kentucky
Duke #2 seed in #7 seed East Carolina




I would love this to come true.
Wolfer79
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HOW THEY FARED: How did the teams in the @D1Baseball Top 25 Rankings fare on the diamond over the past week? You know let's find out, @NCAACWS fans

https://t.co/gLgvS2I0Le https://t.co/I0DdUDUmGd
Wolfer79
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FIELD OF 64: We welcome three new at-large teams to our very latest NCAA postseason projections.

@GamecockBasebll
@MSUBearBaseball
@BaylorBaseball

https://t.co/AsIADJ6UAO https://t.co/Jf6NilwQSX

NC State #10 national seed
Raleigh Regional
NC State
Florida Atlantic
Mississippi State
Liberty

Super Regional
#7 Mississippi
Southern Mississippi
Illinois
Jackson State


EthanBarry
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^^ FSU jumping us is... questionable. Good thing we can fix that in a couple weeks. Let's root for them in the meantime
Wolfer79
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Baseball America
#9 national seed
Raleigh Regional
NC State
East Carolina
South Carolina
Campbell

Matched with #8 national seed Clemson in Super Regional
Clemson
Tennessee Tech
Baylor
Yale
Wolfer79
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BREAKING: The very latest @D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections are out! We have ONE new national seed, THREE new Top 16 hosts and TWO new at-large teams. Find your team:

https://t.co/hA1hJM6ngF https://t.co/7bIYqjm5tx

NC State #13 national seed
Raleigh Regional
NC State
East Carolina
St. John's
Davidson

Matched with #4 national seed Georgia in Super Regional
Georgia
Coastal Carolina
Michigan
Campbell
metcalfmafia
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Why are we being projected so low?
wilmwolf
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I hate the fact that it seems to be a lock the we have ECU in our regional. Why can't they get paired with the Heels?
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
EthanBarry
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metcalfmafia said:

Why are we being projected so low?
This is them projecting out the end of the season, not if the season ended today. So they have us losing to FSU and not doing much in the tournament
EthanBarry
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wilmwolf80 said:

I hate the fact that it seems to be a lock the we have ECU in our regional. Why can't they get paired with the Heels?
The higher the one seed the lower the two seed and vice versa
basementwolf
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wilmwolf80 said:

I hate the fact that it seems to be a lock the we have ECU in our regional. Why can't they get paired with the Heels?
Pretty much our own fault. We screwed the pooch in the cheats series, now they are a national seed and we aren't. Before that we were a national seed and they weren't.
wilmwolf
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EthanBarry said:

wilmwolf80 said:

I hate the fact that it seems to be a lock the we have ECU in our regional. Why can't they get paired with the Heels?
The higher the one seed the lower the two seed and vice versa


Yes, I understand that, but in the two most recent projections posted here, we dropped four spots, yet ECU stayed in our regional. I would think with a drop that far, we wouldn't still be together, unless they dropped the exact number of spots on the two line. It just seems predestined since the rain out that we'll end up together. I'm not worried about playing them, I just would like to attend, and I dislike being around their fans.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
metcalfmafia
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EthanBarry said:

metcalfmafia said:

Why are we being projected so low?
This is them projecting out the end of the season, not if the season ended today. So they have us losing to FSU and not doing much in the tournament


Ethan, how does our RPI shape up compared to other teams we are competing with for national seeds?
Wolfer79
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metcalfmafia said:

EthanBarry said:

metcalfmafia said:

Why are we being projected so low?
This is them projecting out the end of the season, not if the season ended today. So they have us losing to FSU and not doing much in the tournament


Ethan, how does our RPI shape up compared to other teams we are competing with for national seeds?


Warrennolan.com has very good RPI, usually updates within an hour of game completion.

Boyd's World has daily RPI and needs report for record for various levels, top 8, top 16, top 32
Boyd's World updates once a day
Boyd's World has NC State with RPI of 17, 7 remaining games, so not updated since yesterday
NC State cannot have top 8 RPI
Top 16 RPI
3 home wins and 3 road wins or 4 home wins and 1 road win


D1baseball nitty gritty report is good resource also

RPI NITTY GRITTY ADDITION: We've added columns for the previous day's RPI change, along with a team's RPI change over seven days. Check it out, college baseball fans, as we add tools to your one-stop shop site.

https://t.co/X3UsKffzas https://t.co/HJgHYz7S0o
Wolfer79
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wilmwolf80 said:

EthanBarry said:

wilmwolf80 said:

I hate the fact that it seems to be a lock the we have ECU in our regional. Why can't they get paired with the Heels?
The higher the one seed the lower the two seed and vice versa


Yes, I understand that, but in the two most recent projections posted here, we dropped four spots, yet ECU stayed in our regional. I would think with a drop that far, we wouldn't still be together, unless they dropped the exact number of spots on the two line. It just seems predestined since the rain out that we'll end up together. I'm not worried about playing them, I just would like to attend, and I dislike being around their fans.


I think after top 16 seeds, then location becomes na factor in which regional.

D1BASEBALL discussion said if East Carolina wins last 2 series vs Cincinnati and at Connecticut they probably are top 16 seed and host Regional. This morning East Carolina has RPI of 14, NC State has RPI of 19 at WarrenNolan

NC State could end up #2 seed in Greenville Regional.
Bismarck
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It's weird we aren't projected to be able to get to Top 8 even while winning out. FSU is #7 RPI and a road series. I'd think sweeping them (not projecting that) and winning the rest would do it.

Oh well - between FSU and at least three ACC tournament games we will have our chances to make our case to be Top 16/Top 8.
Wolfer79
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Bismarck said:

It's weird we aren't projected to be able to get to Top 8 even while winning out. FSU is #7 RPI and a road series. I'd think sweeping them (not projecting that) and winning the rest would do it.

Oh well - between FSU and at least three ACC tournament games we will have our chances to make our case to be Top 16/Top 8.


The problem with Boyd's World Needs Report is it holds all other teams at same RPI and only looks at team in question wins and losses, location, and whatever else NCAA uses and that impact on it's RPI.

Just win the next game until they tell the team to go home, season over.
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